Load Forecast Updates from ERCOT - April 2025

ERCOT’s updated Adjusted Load Forecast (ALF) is definitely raising some eyebrows.

(Want a quick summary? Here's a short slide deck: https://hubs.ly/Q03jYhJr0 ) 

The main takeaway: ERCOT now expects much higher electricity demand by 2030—significantly more than previously projected.

Here’s a quick rundown of what’s happening and why it matters:

🔍 What’s in the New Forecast?

• Load growth: The new forecast shows demand growing faster than previously expected—driven largely by economic growth, data center expansions, crypto mining, and electrification (especially in transport and industry).
• Peak demand in summer 2030 could be tens of gigawatts higher than earlier estimates (depending on the scenario).
• The ALF includes "economic development" projects that have a high probability of coming online—like large load additions from tech and industrial sectors.

⚡ Why This Matters:

1. Grid Planning: ERCOT uses the ALF to assess long-term reliability and infrastructure needs. This jump in projected demand could accelerate timelines for:
   • New generation (especially dispatchable and firm capacity)
   • Transmission upgrades
   • Grid modernization efforts
2. Market Signals: This might lead to:
   • New incentives for investment in generation and storage,
   • Greater urgency around demand-side management, and
   • More scrutiny of how fast DERs (like batteries or VPPs) can scale.
3. Policy & Pricing: Expect this to affect:
   • Long-term energy price forecasts, and
   • ERCOT’s capacity adequacy reports and future planning metrics.

The Grid Is Changing—Are Your Assets Ready to Keep Up?

In ERCOT's latest Adjusted Load Forecast,  the numbers are eye-opening: demand in 2030 is expected to surge far beyond previous projections.

Why? Texas is growing, which means load growth on multiple fronts from a combination of:

• 📈 Economic growth
• 🧠 Data centers & AI
• 💻 Crypto mining
• ⚡ Electrification of fleets & industry

The grid is about to get a whole lot busier. And with that, assets that can’t flex with demand may get left behind.

This isn’t just a 2030 problem—it’s a right now opportunity.

At THG, we’re helping organizations:

✅ Get visibility into asset performance

✅ Benchmark energy intensity

✅ Identify savings through smarter scheduling

✅ Prep their portfolios for summer stress and long-term growth

If your assets aren't summer-fit, now’s the time to train them up.

Let’s talk about how data and automation can get you in peak shape.

Here's a link to a short slide deck that summarizes the update: https://hubs.ly/Q03jYhJr0